Ravens: From First To Worst

To begin let me congratulate the most recent Super Bowl champions, Baltimore Ravens. Now let me apologize to Ravens fans for the upcoming 2013 season. Not only will the Ravens be the defending world champions with a big target on their back, but they will have to defend against their charging opponents without many key players from their 2012 team. 

Ray Lewis: Retired

Ray Lewis had a good and productive career. As the face of the Ravens organization for several years Lewis provided the Ravens defense with an intensity that other defenses in the league only dream of (yes I’m talking to you New Orleans Saints).

The 2012 season for Ray Lewis was filled with injury and controversy. Ray Lewis only played in six games last season with only one sack, one fumble recovery, 44 tackles, and 13 assisted tackles. What Lewis lacked in statistical relevance he made up for with inspired leadership. Before the Ravens made their surprising playoff run, Ray Lewis announced that this would be his last season in the NFL. This provided motivation for his teammates, who adored Lewis, to help him win one more Super Bowl.

Now the Ravens look for another player to anchor their team that has been known for their defense. Filling the shoes of Ray Lewis won’t be an easy job, however if the Ravens have any kind of shot of repeating, somebody will have to step up.

Paul Kruger: Cleveland Browns, 5 years - $40 Million

On Tuesday March 12th, Paul Kruger signed a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal with the Cleveland Browns. Although many people might argue that Cleveland is kind of dumb for offering Kruger that much money for a season in which he only had 9 sacks and 30 tackles, both of which were career highs for Kruger. Kruger earned his paycheck with 4.5 sacks in the playoffs. He established himself as a dominant pass rusher in the playoffs and on football’s biggest stage he sacked Kaepernick 2.5 times.

Argue about whether or not Kruger’s contract is earned or a result of hype, Kruger will not be playing on the Ravens team next year so the Ravens will have to get nine sacks from someone else.

Dannelle Ellerbe: Miami Dolphins, 5 years - $35 Million

Dannelle Ellerbe had a tremendous 2012 campaign. Ellerbe capitalized on the fact that Ray Lewis was out for the majority of the season. Ellerbe was second in tackles amongst Ravens with 66 solo tackles and he assisted on 23 others. Although the Ravens attempted to pursue Ellerbe there was no way they could not match offers made by other teams.

Anquan Boldin: San Fransisco 49ers, 4 years, $25 Million

Baltimore Ravens what are you going to do now that you’ve won the Super Bowl?  Here’s an idea let’s get rid of the wide receiver that helped us win that Super Bowl to the team that we just beat. Well that’s exactly what the Ravens did. Anquan Boldin will be playing for the Super Bowl favorites San Francisco 49ers.

This might possibly be the biggest loss for the Ravens. Boldin tore it up in the playoffs. With him gone the Ravens look to Torrey Smith to step up and make up for the slack that Boldin left behind.

What do all of these losses mean for the Baltimore Ravens from a fantasy perspective? I’ll be avoiding anyone in a Ravens uniform at this point in free agency.

Flacco finished 14th among quarterbacks last year and 15th in 2011. In 2012 he scored 227 fantasy points  (ESPN standard scoring) and 195 points in 2011.  Josh Freeman, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson all scored more points than Joe Flacco last season. So don’t let Flacco’s big paycheck fool you, he is a mediocre quarterback.

That being said Flacco will have to throw a lot more because the Raven’s defense has weakened considerably, so the potential for big numbers are there for Flacco. However losing Boldin will hurt Flacco considerably. Boldin is a possession receiver, which means when Flacco needed a completion he targeted Boldin.

The below table shows passing plays on 3^rd down, as you can see Boldin was targeted 10 more times than any other receiver on third down. Boldin also caught 92.3% of his target for almost two times more yards than any other receiver. To say that Flacco lost a valuable target for him is a huge understatement.

Player	T	C	Pct	Yds	TD
Anquan Boldin	26	24	92.3%	450	1
Jacoby Jones	13	9	69.2%	231	3
Dennis Pitta	14	13	92.9%	204	3
Torrey Smith	14	10	71.4%	170	2
Ray Rice	12	9	75.0%	143	0
Ed Dickson	4	4	100.0%	79	0
Tandon Doss	3	2	66.7%	54	1
Deonte Thompson	1	1	100.0%	25	0
Bernard Pierce	1	1	100.0%	5	0
Anthony Allen	1	1	100.0%	5	0
Totals	89	74	83.1%	1366	10

I look for Flacco to finish worse than 14^th that he finished in 2012. He even has a chance to finish outside of the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks in 2013.

With the defense being bad, the Raven’s will have to play from behind a lot. This means that Ray Rice will see a decline in his carries. Although Rice will still probably be the best fantasy players on the Raven’s team, I would look to draft running backs like Doug Martin or Trent Richardson before I drafted Ray Rice.

Also it goes without saying but you will not be starting the Raven’s defense during the 2013 season. Look for the Raven’s defense to finish in the bottom of the league on the defensive end.